5/7 Migration Forecast

The north winds that had been keeping the birds at bay broke a night earlier than forecast. Birds are on the move and there’s a nice and strong SW > NE flow to the migration tonight, which bodes well for SE New England. The intensities are quite strong and about what we would hope for this time of year. Confounding potential rain is to the south and fading fast, and, thankfully, appears to not be preventing birds from the south from pushing north. Tomorrow is worth hitting the usual migrant traps.

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5/2 Migration Forecast

Tomorrow is the first Saturday in May and that means everyone is going birding. It’s definitely not one to miss, because the migration machine is in full force along the Atlantic seaboard tonight. For the most part it’s clear sailing for areas along the coast, where low level winds are light. Expect arrivals and typical migrant densities for this time of year.

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The slight twist in tonight’s migration pattern is the presence of strong west winds at high levels. This signature is showing up on stations from New Jersey to Boston. While it could indicate an above average potential for western strays, it will mostly mean better migration patterns for Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, parts of New England that can frequently be left out of the migratory flyway on nights with due south or calm winds. If it’s not already apparent, and you live in southern New England or nearby, go birding tomorrow at your typical migrant haunts.

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5/1 Migration Forecast

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Birds! Rain! Fog! Go Birding! Ah, hyperbole, useful in some situations. Based on the past few weeks of migration conditions and some of the RADAR signals popping up tonight, I think it’s a very safe statement to say, “Go Birding tomorrow, dammit.” The reflectivity signals are the densest I’ve seen yet this season, especially over Jersey and Delaware, indicating the largest movement of migrants into the region so far this season. Combine that with scattered rain showers and fog across the region and you have a good recipe for potential fallout and concentration in the morning.

The regions most likely to see interesting birding in the morning are going to be New York’s urban traps, western Connecticut, and most of Jersey, with the coast seeing the best potential if the rains continue the way they are. There’s a very clear stacking of birds ahead of the rains frontal line, both in Jersey and Massachusetts. These conditions can be very difficult to clearly predict exactly where concentrations can occur and some areas may strike out entirely, but I would say that with the seasonal timing, the reflectivity densities and the timing of the rain system, there’s a high potential for good birding in a lot of areas from Maryland through Massachusetts tomorrow.

4/21 Migration Forecast

Now that we’re entering the last quarter of April, migration should really start picking up pace in the most noticeable format, diversity. Across the northeast, over the past week, I’ve noticed shifts in White-throated Sparrow numbers, behavior and sex composition that is typical of migration at this time of year. There’s also been a slow trickle of arrivals and noticeable upticks in species like Blue-gray Gnatcatcher.

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The conditions have been pretty mixed of late, with variable or nonconducive winds. Tonight continues that pattern, with some relatively strong west winds across the mid-Atlantic, that I believe may be keeping most of the birds on the ground (although the birds in Maine have no qualms about even stronger west winds). The NEXRAD is booming in northern Florida and southern Georgia, so there are birds on the way. Rain is pushing in tomorrow during the day, so there may be very little exodus and movement tomorrow night.

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4/10 Migration Forecast

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I’m dusting off the ol’ blog to throw some words and thoughts into the migratory wind. Tonight is a good excuse, as we’ve had a full day of Texas to Nova Scotia SW winds (see above) blowing across the eastern seaboard that are continuing with the advent of the evenings migration. These are very promising conditions for overshoots and similar to those a couple of days ago that certainly helped produce remarkably early White-eyed Vireo in Newfoundland and Cattle Egret in Rhode Island.
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The early NEXRAD is showing a strong migration signal with SW>NE flow at lower elevations and a more WSW>ENE flow at higher elevations, which is an interesting prospect for westerly migrants appearing in New England tomorrow, similar to how birds like Scissor-tailed Flycatcher appeared in Ohio today. Also note that the velocities are well above average for a typical migration night, with birds moving in excess of 64 knots (~73mph) in the NE quadrant of the halo. This is another factor that helps enable overshoots, as birds get trapped in these very strong wind flows and have less control over where they end up. These conditions remind me of a few days in early April last year that produced a Summer Tanager on 4/8 in Rhode Island, an unheard of arrival date. Bottom line: across the northeast there is great potential tomorrow for extra early arrivals and overshoots as a result of this pattern and the incoming rain could produce concentrations on the ground in the morning.

Sexing the Pawtucket Tufted Duck

A Tufted Duck has been frequenting the boat launch in Pawtucket (example checklist by Justin Lawson) for the past couple of weeks. Not a typical male, there has been much confusion about the sex of this bird, with it being called a female or a 1st year male and others. Up until this weekend, when I was able to study the bird in person and saw really fine photos by Michelle St. Saveur, I had been calling it a basic plumage male, as the bird does almost match Sibley’s depiction of a non-breeding male, most importantly lacking white on the face in most viewing situations. My frustration was that I felt that I did not have an authoritative reference. Sibley’s is a North American guide, with a limited depiction of age and sex combinations and no text description of appearance. Google image searches turned up almost no well-described non-male photos.

Copyright Michelle Ste. Saveur.

Copyright Michelle Ste. Saveur.

This weekend, I was able to study the bird with Yale’s Jake Musser and a copy of Madge’s Waterfowl: An Identification Guide to the Ducks, Geese, and Swans of the World. In person, and in Michelle St. Saveur’s stunning photos (seen above), it was easy to note a small amount of white feathers on the face. More interestingly, in person, with the bird being active, Jake and I were able to see a significant amount of white undertail covert feathers (almost to the point that I would call it a patch or a block of white). Combined with coarse pale barring on brown flanks, the white undertail coverts and white face feathering help identify the sex and age of this individual. In the Waterfowl plates, the white undertail coverts are a variant of the female only and the timing of molt described in Waterfowl matches the current state of the white face feathing and the amount of pale barring on the flanks, placing this individual as a transitional juvenile female. By mid-spring the bird should have completed transition to adult female plumage, adding more white feathers to the face and evening out the pale barring on the flanks.

9/10 Migration Forecast

Stiff southwest winds, fog, and a generally turbulent migration environment are keeping birds on the ground for the most part. Some birds are pushing through, but it’s keeping the movement light and slow. Interesting weather is on the way, however, with a front coming through by the weekend and some rain in the area.

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Followers of my tweets will have noticed that four days ago I predicted the arrival of at least one south or western flycatcher to region. The most astute of my followers will have noticed that I was correct, when Jake Musser found a Western Kingbird in Connecticut over the weekend. Winds are such tonight that a similar event could happen in the next couple days. However,during mid-week the detectability is probably lower, because not as many people are birding. But keep your eyes peeled for birds on wires!

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9/8 Migration Forecast

Beefy northwest winds are hustling migrants south, out over the lower extremities of New England, out over the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean. All the radar stations are glowing like nuclear, blue-green jelly donuts. Eight of September and the songbirds are sailing south.

displayN0R (5)For most of the evening, northish winds will continue to usher our feather friends southwards and sometimes over the ocean a bit too far. If they hold (by 6am they are forecast to be a bit lighter), south and southeast facing coastal locations may see some birds scrambling for shore at dawn. If I can muster and motivate, I’m hoping to check the scene at Camp Cronin in the morn.

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9/7 Migration Forecast

Sprinkles and low clouds have migration on shutdown tonight. Fortunately, that means few birds should be leaving, but it should prevent the arrival of others. Behind the front, winds are conducive, but I’m not seeing a lot of migrants riding that flow from Canada and entering the New England airspace. Basically, birds aren’t stacking up behind the front of rain that’s moving through the region right now.

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Tomorrow morning is supposed to start with sprinkles, which could ground shorebirds that decided to push on anyway. Shorebird season is starting to wane a little, but there are still some shorebird gems out there to be found.

9/5 Migration Forecast

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Birds moving! Lots of activity. A moderately stiff upper level due north wind is giving the birds a killer tail wind. Expect a significant amount of turnover tomorrow, leaning on the departure side of things, as the movements out of northern stations like Burlington look a little light than the intense push through the Albany and Long Island stations.

There are confounding weather conditions, BUT south facing coastal locations should be on the lookout tomorrow morning. Sometimes when there are strong north winds (they are forecast to temper in the next nine hours), birds get pushed too far out over the ocean during the night, struggle to make land, and collapse into coastal migrant traps, hungry, tired, and easy to observe. Camp Cronin in Rhode Island would be a good example, as would Gooseberry Neck in Massachusetts.